The global decrease in measles incidence cannot be explained by changes in vaccination coverage rates. 1980-2015.

The World Health Organization (WHO) shows us that global measles vaccination coverage increased, while measles incidence decreased. But how can we know that the one caused the other to happen? The WHO and World Bank track available vaccination coverage and measles incidence data for every country in the world, since 1980. Assuming increases in measles vaccinations are the cause of the decrease in measles incidence, we would also expect to see this effect when we compare data from individual countries. Thusfar, nobody ever used the available data this way. I used available WHO and World Bank data to see how changes in measles vaccination coverage relate to changes in measles incidence. I was able to include data from 1980-2015. I also split up the data so that I could look at results over 10-year periods. Giving me more data to work with. I found no relation between changes in vaccination coverage and changes in measles incidence between 1980-2015 (59 countries), or 1985-2015 (129 countries). There was a weak beneficial relation between vaccinations and measles over the 10-year periods. But this effect disappeared when baseline measles incidence was taken into account.

Continue readingMore Tag

Global analysis: effect of measles vaccination coverage on measles mortality.

There has been a global decline in the number of measles deaths over the last decades. This decline is caused by vaccination programs, without which death rates would probably be increasing. That is what we are told by the World Health Organization (WHO). But is this true? How did the WHO come to these conclusions? Are they based on what we observe or not? You may have seen a graph showing the relation between vaccinations and measles deaths for England or the USA. But what about the other countries in the world? Do they show the same correlations? Nobody ever bothered to look at the available data untill now. I looked at changes in vaccination rate coverage & measles deaths for all countries in the world from 2000 to 2015. Of these, 90 countries had data available over this period. Then I correlated this data to see to what extend vaccines contributed to the decline in measles mortality. Controlling for possible confounding factors. There was a weak but significant beneficial association between vaccinations and measles mortality. Which disappeared after adjustment for confounding factors.

Continue readingMore Tag
Scroll to top